Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Nov 16 2011

U.S. Industrial Production Improves

Summary

Industrial production rose 0.7% during October following a 0.1% September dip, originally reported as +0.2%. The latest increase exceeded Consensus expectations for a 0.4% rise, according to Action Economics. Factory sector output [...]


Industrial production rose 0.7% during October following a 0.1% September dip, originally reported as +0.2%. The latest increase exceeded Consensus expectations for a 0.4% rise, according to Action Economics. Factory sector output rose 0.4% after a 0.3% September gain. Output of business equipment continued relatively strong with a 1.0% rise and 10.2% during the last 12 months. The y/y gain reflects 22.2% growth in transit equipment, 7.9% in information processing & other, and 6.5% in industrial supplies & other. Consumer goods output rose 0.4% led by a 3.9% rise (12.6% y/y) in autos. Computers, video & audio rose 0.9% (2.2% y/y) and appliance, furniture & carpeting increased 0.3% (3.4% y/y). Nondurables output was unchanged (0.2% y/y), even though clothing production rose 2.9% (-3.2% y/y).

Motor vehicles & parts output jumped 3.1% (8.9% y/y). Less autos, factory output rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y). Output of computers & electronic components rose 0.8% (7.4% y/y) while electrical equipment & appliances jumped another 2.0% (-0.2% y/y). Less autos and high-tech, output rose 0.5% (3.5% y/y). In the soft goods area, apparel output recovered 2.7% (1.4% y/y), chemical output inched up 0.1% (2.3% y/y) and food & beverages rose 0.9% (-0.1% y/y).

Capacity utilization rose to 77.8%. In manufacturing alone, utilization rose to 75.5%, up from the recession low of 64.4%. Overall capacity is estimated to have risen 1.1% y/y following a 2.2% decline during 2010. In the factory sector, capacity rose 0.7% y/y. However, it was roughly unchanged less the high-tech industries.

Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The IP database contains figures with more decimal precision and includes extensive lists of "relative importance" numbers for several breakdowns of production by industry and market group. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

Industrial Production (SA, % Change) Oct Sep Aug Oct Y/Y 2010 2009 2008
Total Output 0.7 -0.1 0.0 4.0 5.3 -11.2 -3.7
 Manufacturing 0.4 0.3 0.2 4.1 5.4 -13.5 -5.0
   Consumer Goods 0.4 0.0 -0.1 2.1 4.3 -7.2 -5.2
   Business Equipment 1.0 0.6 1.4 10.2 7.7 -16.3 -2.5
   Construction Supplies 0.0 0.3 0.1 4.3 3.8 -22.5 -9.7
 Materials 0.9 -0.2 -0.2 4.2 6.3 -11.6 -2.7
 Utilities -0.1 -2.0 -3.2 0.1 4.0 -2.6 -0.1
Capacity Utilization (%) 77.8 77.3 77.4 75.7 74.5 69.1 77.8
 Manufacturing 75.4 75.1 74.9 73.0 71.7 66.2 74.9
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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