Global| Oct 13 2006U.S. Import Prices Down With Oil, All Others Tame
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total import prices fell 2.1% last month after an unrevised 0.8% August increase. The decline outpaced Consensus expectations for a large 1.5% decline. Prices of petroleum imports plunged 10.3% after a 2.1% August gain. In October, [...]
Total import prices fell 2.1% last month after an unrevised 0.8% August increase. The decline outpaced Consensus expectations for a large 1.5% decline.
Prices of petroleum imports plunged 10.3% after a 2.1% August gain. In October, the price of Brent crude oil already has fallen another 8.5% to $57.07 per bbl. Less petroleum, import prices increased a modest 0.1% after the firm 0.5% rise during August.
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.
Have U.S. Import Prices Become Less Responsive to Changes in the Dollar? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
Capital goods prices were unchanged (-0.2% y/y) for the second month. Excluding computers, capital good prices rose 0.2% (1.8% y/y) after having been unchanged during August. Prices for nonauto consumer goods rose 0.1% (0.9% y/y) for the second month while prices for nonoil industrial supplies & materials rose 0.4% (6.6% y/y) after a little revised 1.5% August increase.
Export prices fell 0.5% as both agricultural prices fell 0.7% (4.4% y/y) and nonagricultural commodities prices dropped 0.5% (+3.7% y/y).
Oil Prices and the U.S. Trade Deficit from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | September | August | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | -2.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| Petroleum | -10.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 37.6% | 30.5% | 21.0% |
| Non-petroleum | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Export- All Commodities | -0.5% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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