Global| Apr 16 2008U.S. Housing Starts Weaker Than Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
During March, housing starts were weaker than expected, falling 11.9% m/m to 947,000 units. A decline to 1.010M had been generally expected. The latest level was the lowest since early 1991. Accentuating the total's m/m decline was a [...]
During March, housing starts were weaker than expected, falling 11.9% m/m to 947,000 units. A decline to 1.010M had been generally expected. The latest level was the lowest since early 1991.
Accentuating the total's m/m decline was a 24.6% drop in starts of multi-family units which more than reversed February's 11.7% rise. 
Single family starts last month fell by about the same 5.7% as they did in February. That month's decline was revised slightly shallower. Single family starts in March also were at their lowest level since early 1991 and they have fallen 63.0% since their early 2006 peak. For 1Q08, starts fell 12.6% from 4Q07.
By region, in the Midwest single family starts fell to a record low and were down 25.0% y/y. Single family starts in the Northeast were roughly unchanged m/m but were down 30.4% y/y. In the South, single family starts also were about unchanged (-40.9% y/y) and in the West single family starts fell 11.8%. (-48.3% y/y). That decline reversed much of the surge in February and they remained down 70% from the August 2005 peak.
Building permits fell 5.8% m/m and single-family permits fell 6.2% (-46.4% y/y).
Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | March | February | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 947 | 1,075 | -36.5% | 1,344 | 1,812 | 2,073 |
| Single-Family | 680 | 721 | -43.6% | 1,039 | 1,474 | 1,719 |
| Multi-Family | 267 | 354 | -6.6% | 304 | 338 | 354 |
| Building Permits | 927 | 984 | -40.9% | 1,371 | 1,842 | 2,159 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
