Global| Aug 18 2020U.S. Housing Starts Surge Unexpectedly in July; Building Permits Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Housing activity continues to recover following coronavirus shutdown. • Building permits hit six-month high. Improved activity in the housing sector continues to lead the economy out of recession. Housing starts strengthened 22.6% [...]
• Housing activity continues to recover following coronavirus shutdown.
• Building permits hit six-month high.
Improved activity in the housing sector continues to lead the economy out of recession. Housing starts strengthened 22.6% during July (23.4% y/y) to 1.496 million (SAAR) from 1.220 million during June, revised from 1.186 million. Despite these gains, total starts remain 7.5% below their January peak of 1.617 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.230 million starts in July.
Starts of single-family homes rose 8.2% last month (7.4% y/y) to 940,000 after surging 19.4% in June to 869,000, revised from 831,000. Multi-family starts strengthened 58.4% (65.0% y/y) to 556,000 in July from 351,000 in June, revised from 355,000.
Building permits improved 18.8% in July (9.4% y/y) to 1.495 million from 1.258 million during June, revised from 1.241 million. Permits to build single-family homes increased 17.0% (15.5% y/y) to 983,000 after improving 12.6% in June. Permits to build multi-family homes increased 22.5% (-0.6% y/y) to the highest level since January.
By region, last month's improvement in housing starts reflected a roughly one-third increase (63.5% y/y) in the Northeast to 157,000. The latest level was triple the April low. In the South, starts also rose by one-third both m/m and y/y to 830,000, the highest level since February. In the Midwest, housing starts rose 5.8% (15.5% y/y) to 201,000 after three months of firm gain. Starts in the West improved 5.8% (-3.1% y/y) to 308,000 but failed to recover June's decline.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,496 | 1,220 | 1,038 | 23.4 | 1,295 | 1,248 | 1,207 |
| Single-Family | 940 | 869 | 728 | 7.4 | 893 | 872 | 851 |
| Multi-Family | 556 | 351 | 310 | 65.0 | 403 | 376 | 356 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 157 | 116 | 69 | 63.5 | 115 | 111 | 112 |
| Midwest | 201 | 190 | 142 | 15.5 | 170 | 170 | 180 |
| South | 830 | 623 | 513 | 33.0 | 689 | 630 | 602 |
| West | 308 | 291 | 314 | -3.1 | 322 | 337 | 314 |
| Building Permits | 1,495 | 1,258 | 1,216 | 9.4 | 1,386 | 1,329 | 1,285 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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