Global| Aug 16 2018U.S. Housing Starts Improvement Is Disappointing
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Start-up activity in the housing market remained under pressure during July. Total housing starts rose 0.9% last month (-1.4% y/y) to 1.168 million (SAAR). That followed a 12.9% decline in June to 1.158 million, revised from 1.173 [...]
Start-up activity in the housing market remained under pressure during July. Total housing starts rose 0.9% last month (-1.4% y/y) to 1.168 million (SAAR). That followed a 12.9% decline in June to 1.158 million, revised from 1.173 million. A rise to 1.259 million starts had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Starts of single-family homes also increased 0.9% (2.7% y/y) last month to 862,000 units, following a 9.0% June decline to 854,000. Starts of multi-family units improved 0.7% (-11.6% y/y) to 306,000 after falling 22.3% to 304,000 in June.
The rise in starts last month was led by an 11.6% increase (7.5% y/y) in the Midwest to 173,000 after a one-third m/m decline during June. Housing starts in the South also firmed as they rebounded 10.4% (4.1% y/y) to 636,000 and made up most of the June decline. Working lower were starts in the West which fell by 19.6% (-10.9% y/y) to 262,000, the lowest level since January 2017. Starts in the Northeast were off 4.0% (-18.5% y/y) to 97,000 after a 4.7% decline.
Building permits improved 1.5% last month (4.2% y/y) to 1.311 million units following a 0.7% June fall. Single-family permits increased 1.9% (6.4% y/y) to 869,000 after a 1.2% June rise. Permits to build multi-family homes gained 0.7% (0.2% y/y) to 442,000 following three straight months of sharp decline.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
The Financial Crisis at 10: Will We Ever Recover? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,168 | 1,158 | 1,329 | -1.4 | 1,208 | 1,177 | 1,107 |
| Single-Family | 862 | 854 | 938 | 2.7 | 852 | 785 | 713 |
| Multi-Family | 306 | 304 | 391 | -11.6 | 354 | 392 | 397 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 97 | 101 | 106 | -18.5 | 111 | 116 | 135 |
| Midwest | 173 | 155 | 239 | 7.5 | 180 | 185 | 150 |
| South | 636 | 576 | 652 | 4.1 | 603 | 585 | 557 |
| West | 262 | 326 | 332 | -10.9 | 314 | 292 | 265 |
| Building Permits | 1,311 | 1,292 | 1,301 | 4.2 | 1,286 | 1,206 | 1,178 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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