Global| Dec 15 2010U.S. Gasoline Prices Reach New Highs With Crude Oil
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Signs of building momentum behind the U.S. economic recovery has given further support to petroleum prices. The pump price for regular gasoline rose two cents last week to $2.98 per gallon. Prices have risen roughly fifty cents per [...]
Signs of building momentum behind the U.S. economic recovery has given
further support to petroleum prices. The pump price for regular gasoline
rose two cents last week to $2.98 per gallon. Prices have risen roughly fifty
cents per gallon since the middle of last year and have surged from the
December-2008 low of $1.61. Yesterday the spot market price for a gallon of
regular gasoline of $2.34 was even with last week's average. Notable about the
strength in gasoline costs is that now is when they're supposed to soften. To
account for this pattern Haver Analytics calculates seasonal factors. Thus, the
higher seasonally adjusted gasoline price of $3.51 per gallon explains why to
motorists the "pain" of filling up is most acute.
Crude oil prices rose last week to an average $88.50 for a barrel of light sweet crude (WTI). Yesterday, the crude price held roughly steady at $88.61 per barrel. Here again, normal seasonal patterns suggest that crude costs should now be under downward pressure. The seasonally adjusted cost of a barrel of crude oil is $102.16 per barrel as calculated by Haver Analytics.
Lastly, natural gas prices built on earlier seasonal improvement and rose last week to an average of $4.45 per mmbtu versus an average $3.70 in November. Yesterday, prices nudged higher to $4.46 but remained down from an early-January high of $6.50.
Demand for gasoline fell 0.7% in early-December versus last year. The demand for residual fuel oil fell a greatly lessened 5.0% but distillate demand rose 5.3% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products rose 0.8% during the last twelve months.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY
The statement following today's FOMC meeting can be found here.
| Weekly Prices | 12/13/10 | 12/06/10 | 11/29/10 | Y/Y% | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 2.98 | 2.96 | 2.86 | 14.7 | 2.35 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI($ per bbl.) | 88.50 | 86.36 | 81.92 | 23.7 | 61.39 | 100.16 | 72.25 |
| Natural Gas($/mmbtu) | 4.45 | 4.20 | 3.99 | -12.7 | 3.95 | 8.88 | 6.97 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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