Global| Mar 22 2017U.S. FHFA House Price Index Momentum Diminishes
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) index of U.S. house prices remained unchanged during January following a 0.4% December increase and a 0.6% November improvement. From January 2016 to January 2017, the home price index rose [...]
The Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) index of U.S. house prices remained unchanged during January following a 0.4% December increase and a 0.6% November improvement. From January 2016 to January 2017, the home price index rose a somewhat lessened 5.7%. During the last three months, however, the 4.2% annualized rate of increase was its weakest since June, and roughly half the rate of increase this past summer.
The performance of home prices varied greatly around the country. In the Mountain states home prices posted a 0.6% increase (8.3% y/y); however, three-month growth slackened to 5.4%, one-third the rate of increase last winter. Prices in the Pacific states also increased 0.6% (7.7% y/y) and three-month growth held steady at 7.3%.
In the West South Central region, home prices increased a lessened 0.2% (6.0% y/y) and a minimal 1.5% on a three-month basis. Prices in the West North Central also increased 0.2% (4.6% y/y) and at asteady 5.8% rate during the last three months.
Home prices fell 2.0% (+3.5% y/y) in the East South Central region and reversed the December rise. The East North Central region logged a 0.2% decline (+5.0% y/y) and three-month growth fell to 3.7%, half its October high.
The FHFA house price index is a weighted repeat sales index, measuring average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index also includes refinancings on the same kinds of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. The FHFA data are available in Haver's USECON database.
| FHFA U.S. House Price Index, Purchase Only (SA %) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 5.4 |
| Mountain | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.2 |
| Pacific | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 9.4 |
| South Atlantic | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 5.8 |
| West South Central | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 5.6 |
| East North Central | -0.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| West North Central | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Middle Atlantic | 0.1 | -0.8 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| New England | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
| East South Central | -2.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 |
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Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
