Global| May 02 2011U.S. Factory Sector Growth Eases Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Composite Index of activity in the factory sector from the Institute for Supply Management slipped again, last month to 60.4 from an unrevised 61.2 in March. The figure was higher than Consensus expectations for 59.6. The latest [...]
The Composite Index of activity in the factory sector from the Institute for Supply Management slipped again, last month to 60.4 from an unrevised 61.2 in March. The figure was higher than Consensus expectations for 59.6. The latest reading continued to indicate positive factory growth and was the twenty-first consecutive monthly figure above the break-even level of 50. It was up from the low of 32.5 reached in December '08.
Declines in most of the components contributed to the lower composite index. The largest m/m decline was in production to the lowest level since January. The new orders and the suppliers deliveries indexes also fell. The jobs figure held nearly constant at 62.7. (During the last ten years there has been a 90% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.)
Offsetting the declines last month was a sharp increase in the inventories reading. The separate index of new export orders recovered nearly all of its March decline while the index of prices paid rose to 85.5, its highest level since July 2008 and up from the December '08 low of 18.0. Seventy-two percent of respondents reported higher prices while just one percent indicated lower prices.
The ISM figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The forecast data is in the AS1REPNA database.
| ISM Mfg | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 60.4 | 61.2 | 61.4 | 59.6 | 57.3 | 46.3 | 45.5 |
| New Orders | 61.7 | 63.3 | 68.0 | 63.6 | 59.2 | 51.6 | 42.1 |
| Employment | 62.7 | 63.0 | 64.5 | 58.7 | 57.3 | 40.5 | 43.3 |
| Production | 63.8 | 69.0 | 66.3 | 66.4 | 61.1 | 50.5 | 45.1 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 60.2 | 63.1 | 59.4 | 59.8 | 58.1 | 51.5 | 51.6 |
| Inventories | 53.6 | 47.4 | 48.8 | 49.7 | 50.8 | 37.1 | 45.5 |
| Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 85.5 | 85.0 | 82.0 | 78.0 | 68.9 | 48.3 | 66.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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