Global| Aug 04 2016U.S. Factory Orders Decline Further in June, but Shipments Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders to manufacturers declined 1.5% (-5.6 y/y) during June following a little-revised 1.2% May fall. A 1.7% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Durable goods orders fell 3.9%, the same as in the [...]
New orders to manufacturers declined 1.5% (-5.6 y/y) during June following a little-revised 1.2% May fall. A 1.7% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Durable goods orders fell 3.9%, the same as in the advance report, paced by a sharp drop in transportation sector bookings. Nondefense aircraft & parts orders fell 58.8% (-60.7% y/y). Factory sector orders outside of the transportation sector altogether improved 0.4% (-4.2% y/y) after a 0.2% gain.
Total shipments rose 0.7% (-3.2% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. Nondurable goods shipments, which equal orders, improved 1.0% (-4.6% y/y), led by a steady 3.9% increase (-23.7% y/y) in petroleum refinery shipments. Basic chemical shipments improved 0.5% (0.6% y/y) and textile mill shipments rose 0.2% (4.7 y/y). Apparel shipments declined 1.7% (+8.5% y/y). In the durable goods sector, shipments improved 0.4% (-1.9% y/y), led higher by a 1.4% gain (0.8% y/y) in transportation shipments. Machinery shipments eased, however, by 0.2% (-8.3% y/y).
Unfilled orders declined 0.8% (-1.9% y/y) as durable goods backlogs also fell 0.8% (-1.9% y/y). The decline was led by a 7.6% decrease (-7.7% y/y) in machinery backlogs, while unfilled orders in the transportation sector fell 1.2% (-2.7% y/y). Unfilled orders for computers & electronic products notched 0.1% higher (5.7% y/y).
Inventories of manufactured products eased 0.1% (-3.7% y/y), and have been declining steadily since late in 2014. Transportation equipment inventories fell 1.0% (-2.7% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, inventories gained 0.2% (-4.0% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories declined 0.8% (-3.9% y/y), but machinery inventories rose 0.8% (-3.5% y/y). Inventories of nondurable goods improved 0.2% (-3.8% y/y), but there was a one-third y/y drop in the value of petroleum refinery inventories. Food product inventories gained 0.4% (2.1% y/y), and basic chemical inventories rose 0.4% (1.3% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -1.5 | -1.2 | 1.8 | -5.6 | -6.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Shipments | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -3.2 | -4.4 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.8 | 0.0 | 0.6 | -1.9 | -2.4 | 8.8 | 5.8t |
| Inventories | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -3.7 | -2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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