U.S. Energy Product Prices Strengthen

Total retail sales increased 0.5% (3.2% y/y) during May following a 0.3% April increase, revised from a 0.2% slip reported initially. A 0.6% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts rose 0.5% (3.2% y/y), the same as during April, revised from 0.1%. A 0.4% gain had been expected.

Last month, sales of motor vehicle & parts increased 0.7% (3.1% y/y) after a 0.5% fall during April. This compared to a 6.2% gain in unit sales of motor vehicles during May.

A measure of the underlying pace of retail spending is nonauto sales growth excluding gasoline and building materials. These sales rose 0.5% (3.4% y/y) after a 0.4% rise, revised from unchanged.

Sales strength was broad-based last month. Purchases via the internet surged 1.4% (11.4% y/y), following a 0.5% rise. Purchases at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores rose 1.1% (-4.2% y/y) and repeated April's strength. Sales of electronics & appliance store also rose 1.1% (-2.4% y/y) and reversed April's 1.3% decline. General merchandise store sales increased 0.7% (3.3% y/y), extending the strength during the prior two months. Elsewhere, goods spending was tepid. Furniture & home furnishings store sales gained 0.1% (0.6% y/y) following a 0.6% rise. Sales of building materials and garden equipment were little changed (0.2% y/y) following a 0.6% decline. Clothing & accessory store sales also held steady (-2.3% y/y)  after a 0.2% dip. 

Gasoline service station sales improved 0.3% (3.2% y/y) as prices continued to increase.

Sales of nondiscretionary items were mixed last month. Food & beverage store sales slipped 0.1% (+1.6% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Health & personal care product store sales improved 0.6% (3.4% y/y) following a 0.2% increase.

Restaurant & drinking establishment sales  increased 0.7% (3.7% y/y) after a 0.3% rise.

The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.

Total business inventories increased 0.5% (5.3% year-on-year) during April, after being unchanged in March (unrevised). Total business sales decreased 0.2% (+2.8% y/y) following a 1.3% gain (revised down from 1.6%). The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio ticked up to 1.39 from an upwardly-revised 1.38. Business inventory swings can have a meaningful impact on GDP. In the first quarter inventories added 0.6 percentage point to GDP growth.

Retail inventories increased 0.5% (4.6% y/y) in April after declining 0.3%. Auto inventories, which comprise roughly 35% of retail inventories, grew 0.8% (8.2% y/y). Non-auto retail inventories rose 0.4% (2.6% y/y). General merchandise inventories, the second largest sector were unchanged (+0.1% y/y). The troubled department store sector – a subset of general merchandise – saw inventories down 1.4% (-7.7% y/y). Factory sector inventories gained 0.3% (3.8% y/y). As reported last week, wholesale inventories were up 0.8% (7.6% y/y).

Retail sales increased an upwardly-revised 0.3% in April (was -0.2%) and 3.5% y/y, with non-auto sales growing 0.5% (3.6% y/y). Note: the advanced retail sales data for May was released today showing a 0.5% gain (3.1% y/y). Wholesale sector sales declined 0.4% in April (+2.7% y/y), while shipments from the factory sector were down 0.5% (+2.2% y/y).

The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector was unchanged at 1.45. The non-auto I/S ratio ticked up down to 1.19, slightly above the historic low of 1.17 reached in November 2018 (data goes back to 1967). The wholesale and factory sector I/S ratios edged up to 1.34 and 1.37 respectively.

The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.