Global| Jun 25 2014U.S. Durable Goods Orders Suffer a Setback
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods declined 1.0% (+2.7% y/y) during May and reversed an unrevised 0.8% April rise. The decline contrasted with expectations for no change in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Fewer new orders for [...]
New orders for durable goods declined 1.0% (+2.7% y/y) during May and reversed an unrevised 0.8% April rise. The decline contrasted with expectations for no change in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Fewer new orders for transportation equipment led the decline with a 3.0% shortfall (-0.9% y/y), the first down-month in four. It reflected a 4.0% drop (-21.6% y/y) in commercial aircraft & parts orders. Defense aircraft bookings gained 5.9% (19.9% y/y) while motor vehicle & parts orders increased 2.1% (4.7% y/y).
Outside of the transportation sector, new orders slipped 0.1% (+4.4% y/y) last month after a 0.4% rise. New orders for electrical equipment & appliances were off 3.1% (-2.4% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. Computers & electronic products orders fell 1.7% (-1.5% y/y), about as they did in April. Machinery orders were off 0.3% (+8.6 y/y) and added to a 2.4% decline. To the upside, primary metal orders jumped 1.9% (5.2% y/y) and fabricated metals orders moved 0.3% higher (2.4% y/y). Nondefense capital goods orders declined 0.5% (1.8% y/y) but orders excluding aircraft improved 0.7% (4.0% y/y), making up most of the prior month's decline.
Shipments of durable goods gained 0.3% (3.7% y/y) after April's stability. Shipments excluding the transportation sector increased 0.3% (5.0% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Inventories of durable goods jumped 1.0% (5.5% y/y), the strongest gain since December. Inventories outside the transportation sector gained 0.9% (3.4% y/y), also the strongest rise this year. Unfilled orders improved 0.6% (7.9% y/y) and added to a 0.9% gain. Order backlogs outside of the transportation sector rose 0.5% (5.8% y/y), the third straight month of firm increase.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, %) | -1.0 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 11.0 |
| Transportation | -3.0 | 1.7 | 5.2 | -0.9 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 14.9 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -0.1 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 9.5 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -0.5 | -0.6 | 9.7 | -1.8 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 15.3 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 0.7 | -1.1 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 11.6 |
| Shipments | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 9.4 |
| Inventories | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 10.8 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 10.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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