Global| Jan 26 2006U.S. Durable Goods Orders Recover
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Orders for durable goods in December rose 1.3% following an upwardly revised 5.4% increase in November. The rise about matched Consensus expectations for a 1.0% gain, however, the details of the report painted a more constructive [...]
Orders for durable goods in December rose 1.3% following an upwardly revised 5.4% increase in November. The rise about matched Consensus expectations for a 1.0% gain, however, the details of the report painted a more constructive picture of factory sector activity than was portrayed in the November release.
Aircraft & parts orders which rose 77% and 69% in October & November, respectively, and dominated those two months' reports fell just 2.9% and were triple the year earlier level in December.
Moving in the other direction, new orders for motor vehicles & parts rose 6.6% (-1.3% y/y) following two months of sharp decline.
Less the transportation sector altogether, durable goods orders rose 0.9% following an upwardly revised 0.6% November increase.
Machinery orders rose 6.5% (10.9% y/y) after a 3.1% November increase, initially reported as a decline. Fabricated metals orders rose 1.3% (3.2% y/y) following a 1.6% November decline that was shallower than initially reported and orders for computers & related products rose 1.5% (8.0% y/y) after an upwardly revised 8.1% November increase.
Orders for nondefense capital goods fell 0.6% due to the drop in aircraft but less aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders increased 3.5% after a slight November increase that initially was reported as a 2.0% drop.
On the downside in December were communications equipment orders which fell 3.3% (-7.4% y/y) and electrical equipment orders which fell 2.8% (+14.8% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods jumped 3.5% (6.7% y/y) in December following a 0.6% November increase. Less the transportation sector, shipments rose 2.3% (6.0% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.5% November increase.
Order backlogs surged another 2.4% (16.3% y/y) due to the high level of aircraft orders. Less transportation backlogs ticked up 0.3% (10.0% y/y) and the ratio of backlogs to shipments outside of transportation fell from the November high.
Durable inventories ticked 0.1% higher (3.5% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.8% November increase.
| NAICS Classification | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | 1.3% | 5.4% | 12.7% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 4.1% |
| Excluding Transportation | 0.9% | 0.6% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 3.1% |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -0.6% | 22.2% | 31.3% | 19.7% | 11.0% | 4.2% |
| Excluding Aircraft | 3.5% | 0.2% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 4.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
