Global| Apr 25 2019U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound; Capital Goods Orders Surge
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods increased 2.7% (2.3% y/y) during March after a 1.1% February decline, revised from -1.6%. A 0.8% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 7.0% (1.2% y/y) strengthening in [...]
New orders for durable goods increased 2.7% (2.3% y/y) during March after a 1.1% February decline, revised from -1.6%. A 0.8% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 7.0% (1.2% y/y) strengthening in transportation sector orders powered the overall rise, as they rebounded from a 2.9% decline. The gain was led by a 31.2% strengthening in orders for nondefense aircraft & parts which reversed February's drop. Motor vehicle & parts orders increased 2.1% (10.1% y/y) following no change. Excluding the transportation sector altogether, durable goods orders improved 0.4% (2.9% y/y) following slight declines in three of the prior four months.
Orders for nondefense capital goods increased 6.5% (-4.4% y/y) and reversed the prior month's 5.0% decline. Excluding aircraft, these so-called "core" orders improved 1.3% (5.3% y/y), the largest increase since July.
Computer & electronic products orders gained 2.2% (7.4% y/y) led by a 9.0% jump (16.1% y/y) in communications equipment. Computer & electronic products orders declined 4.5% (+1.7% y/y). Orders for machinery gained 0.3% (3.9% y/y) while orders for electrical equipment, appliances & components ticked 0.1% higher (1.9% y/y) after two straight months of 1.1% increase. Primary metals orders fell 0.2% (+0.3% y/y) and fabricated metals products slipped 0.2% (+0.3% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.3% (5.1% y/y) for a second month. Excluding the transportation sector, shipments eased 0.1% (+4.0% y/y). Shipments of core capital goods fell 0.2% (+4.4 y/y), following a 0.6% rise.
Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.3% (3.0% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Transportation sector backlogs increased 0.4% (2.5% y/y). Outside of transportation, unfilled orders were unchanged (4.0% y/y) and have been over the last three months.
Inventories of durable goods increased 0.3% (5.0% y/y) in March following a 0.4% rise. Transportation sector inventories gained 0.1% (4.8% y/y) following two straight months of 1.0% increase. Outside of the transportation sector, inventories rose 0.4% (5.1% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders (SA, % chg) | 2.7 | -1.1 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 7.8 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| Transportation | 7.0 | -2.9 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 9.6 | 3.4 | -0.7 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 2.9 | 6.8 | 6.5 | -2.3 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 6.5 | -5.0 | 1.5 | -4.4 | 5.6 | 9.1 | -5.8 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 6.7 | -4.5 |
| Shipments | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.5 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | -2.4 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
