Global| Feb 19 2016U.S. CPI Remains Unchanged; Core Prices Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Consumer Price Index held steady during January (1.4% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% dip during December. A 0.1% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.3% [...]
The Consumer Price Index held steady during January (1.4% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% dip during December. A 0.1% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.3% (2.2% y/y), the largest monthly increase since August 2011. A 0.1% rise had been expected.
A 2.8% decline (-6.5% y/y) in energy prices held back the overall CPI increase, the same as in December. Gasoline prices fell 4.8% (-7.3% y/y), repeating the December decline. Heating oil costs dropped 6.5% (NSA, -28.7% y/y). Electricity costs fell 0.7% (-2.4% y/y) and natural gas prices eased 0.6% (-12.7% y/y).
Food prices remained unchanged (0.8% y/y) following two months of slight decline. Meat prices fell 0.8% (-4.9% y/y) and dairy product prices eased 0.2% (-3.0% y/y). Cereal prices were off 0.2% (+0.4% y/y), but fruit & vegetable costs jumped 1.3% (2.7% y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices fell 0.2% (+0.1% y/y).
Services prices excluding energy firmed 0.3% (3.0% y/y), the
strongest increase in nine months. Medical care services powered the rise with a
0.5% increase (3.3% y/y). Transportation services prices gained 0.4% (2.7% y/y)
as the cost of public transportation jumped 0.7% (-0.1% y/y). Recreation
services prices rose 0.3% (2.3% y/y) for a second month. Shelter prices gained
0.3% as primary residence rents also rose 0.3% (3.7% y/y). The owners equivalent
rent of primary residences improved 0.2% (3.2% y/y). Tuition & other school
fees remained unchanged (3.3% y/y).
Core goods prices increased 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) following eight months of slight decline. Apparel prices jumped 0.6% (-0.6% y/y), after four months of decline, andss medical care goods prices rose 0.4% (2.1% y/y). New vehicle prices increased 0.3% (0.6% y/y). Appliance prices rose 0.2% (-2.9% y/y) and furniture & bedding costs held steady (-0.3% y/y). Recreation goods prices were unchanged (-3.9% y/y) and education & communications product prices fell 1.3% (-3.9%).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.0 |
| Services less Energy | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Food | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Energy | -2.8 | -2.8 | 0.3 | -6.5 | -16.7 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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