Global| Nov 08 2013U.S. Consumer Sentiment Continues To Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer sentiment, as measured in the Reuters/University of Michigan survey, fell in early-November to a reading of 72.0 (-12.9% y/y). That compares to 73.2 last month and the June high of 85.1. This latest level was the lowest since [...]
Consumer sentiment, as measured in the Reuters/University of Michigan survey, fell in early-November to a reading of 72.0 (-12.9% y/y). That compares to 73.2 last month and the June high of 85.1. This latest level was the lowest since December 2011 and was weaker than Consensus expectations for a rise to 74.8. During the last ten years, there has been a 58% correlation between the level of sentiment and three-month growth in real PCE.
Worries about current economic conditions weighed heavily on sentiment this month. The index fell to 87.2, the lowest level since January, while concern about the future persisted. The consumer expectations index fell marginally to 62.3 m/m, following three months of sharp decline.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Mid-Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov '12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 72.0 | 73.2 | 77.5 | 82.7 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 87.2 | 89.9 | 92.6 | 90.6 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 62.3 | 62.5 | 67.8 | 77.7 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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