Global| Aug 07 2013U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Continues Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Improved labor markets are supporting confidence; thus the consumer is ramping up credit usage. During June, consumer credit outstanding grew $13.8B following a $17.5B May increase, revised from $19.6B. The y/y increase was stable at [...]
Improved labor markets are supporting confidence; thus the consumer is ramping up credit usage. During June, consumer credit
outstanding grew $13.8B following a $17.5B May increase, revised from
$19.6B. The y/y increase was stable at 5.8%. Consensus
expectations were for a rise of $15.0B, as measured by the Action
Economics survey.
The gain in non-revolving credit drove the June total. It increased $16.5B (8.0% y/y), up from an $11.1B gain in May. Federal government loans were up 21.0% y/y, these constitute about 29% of total non-revolving credit. Finance company lending (31% of the total) remained flat y/y and commercial bank lending (27% of the total) grew 6.0% y/y. Borrowing at credit unions (11% of the total) advanced 9.1% y/y while savings bank credit (2% of the total) rose 2.8% y/y.
Revolving credit, declined $2.7B (+1.1% y/y) in June. About 73% of this credit is held by commercial banks and it rose 1.4% y/y. Savings bank loans (7% of the total) gained 6.2% y/y). Finance company lending (8% of the total) fell 1.8% y/y and borrowing from credit unions (5% of the total) gained 7.4% y/y. Nonfinancial business loans (3% of the total) fell 19.5% y/y.
The figures used in this report are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
The Recent Bond Market Selloff in Historical Perspective from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $13.8B | $17.5B | $9.8B | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | -0.7% |
| Revolving | -2.7 | 6.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -7.5 |
| Non-revolving | 16.5 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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