Global| Jan 08 2013U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Remains Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Individuals currently are inclined to borrow aggressively. Consumer credit outstanding jumped another $16.1B during November following a little-revised $14.0B October increase, according to the Federal Reserve. The latest rise left [...]
Individuals currently are inclined to borrow aggressively. Consumer credit outstanding jumped another $16.1B during November following a little-revised $14.0B October increase, according to the Federal Reserve. The latest rise left the y/y gain at 5.9%, nearly its strongest since early-2008. The Action Economics survey called for a November gain of $10.8B.
Use of non-revolving credit lines continued quite strong. During November, non-revolving credit rose $15.2B after double-digit gains in the prior three months. The y/y increase of 8.3% was its strongest since late-2002. Federal government loans rose by one quarter y/y, securitized loans increased 14.8% y/y, credit union lending grew 7.7% y/y and commercial bank loans gained 3.7% y/y. Non-revolving credit accounts for roughly two thirds of the credit total. In contrast, consumers seem less inclined to quickly pull out their credit cards. Revolving credit inched up just $0.8B after a strong $3.5B October rise. The y/y increase remained a moderate 0.7%. Savings institution loans rose 9.5% y/y and credit union borrowing increased 7.5% y/y. Finance company borrowing fell 11.4% y/y.
The figures used in this report are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Interconnectedness and Systemic Risk: Lessons from the Financial Crisis and Policy Implications is the title of Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen's speech and it is available here.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $16.1B | $14.0B | $12.0B | 5.9% | 3.4% | -1.2% | -4.5% |
| Revolving | 0.8 | 3.5 | -2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -7.4 | -8.8 |
| Non-revolving | 15.2 | 10.7 | 14.2 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 | -1.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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