Global| Feb 25 2013U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index Deteriorates in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) for January fell to -0.32 from upwardly revised readings of 0.25 and 0.96 in December and November. Despite January weakening, the revisions caused the [...]
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index
(CFNAI) for January fell to -0.32 from upwardly revised readings of 0.25
and 0.96 in December and November. Despite January weakening, the
revisions caused the three-month moving average to improve to 0.30, its
highest level since February of last year. During the last ten years,
there has been a 79% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the
q/q change in real GDP.
Deterioration in the component series of the index was widespread last month. The Production & Income component led the decline with a fall into negative territory. However, the index was revised up, and sharply positive in December and November. The Employment, Unemployment and Hours series deteriorated last month to its lowest level since August. The Personal Consumption and Housing series became more negative and dropped to its lowest level since October. Offsetting some of these declines was improvement in the Sales, Orders & Inventories figure. The Chicago Fed reported that during January, 34 of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index while 51 made negative contributions.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Unemployment among recent veterans during the Great Recession from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
| Chicago Federal Reserve Bank | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFNAI | -0.32 | 0.25 | 0.96 | 0.42 | -0.09 | -0.04 | 0.04 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 0.28 | -- | -- | -- |
| Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.20 | -0.13 | -0.14 | -0.24 | -0.22 | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Employment, Unemployment & Hours | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.38 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| Production & Income | -0.17 | 0.35 | 0.73 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Sales, Orders & Inventories | 0.03 | -0.07 | 0.26 | -0.07 | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
