Global| Jun 30 2021U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Retreats in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Barometer falls to lowest level in four months. • New orders & production weaken. • Delivery speeds slow while pricing power strengthens. The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer declined to 66.1 in June from 75.2 in [...]
• Barometer falls to lowest level in four months.
• New orders & production weaken.
• Delivery speeds slow while pricing power strengthens.
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer declined to 66.1 in June from 75.2 in May. The Action Economics Forecast expected a lesser decline to 70.0. An index above 50 suggests growing business activity in the Chicago area.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer with methodology similar to the ISM Composite Index. This measure weakened to 58.9 following three straight months at 64.9. The figure remained up, nevertheless, from the recession low of 40.7 last May.
The new orders index declined to 66.7, the lowest level in three months. The production series also fell to 60.0, down from the April high of 72.9 as a lessened 35% (NSA) of respondents reported a higher level of output and an increased 15% reported a decline. The order backlog series weakened to 66.6 from the record 80.7 in May. The inventory index declined moderately. Posting another decline was the employment reading to 44.0, indicating a net contraction in payrolls for the second month since February. Supplier delivery speeds slowed significantly this month as indicated by a rise in the index to 86.5. A strengthened 75% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while a lessened three percent reported quicker speeds.
Prices paid strengthened to 91.9, the highest level since December 1979. A higher 86% (NSA) of respondents reported paying higher prices while none paid less.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey is collected online each month from manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms in the Chicago area. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database with detail including the ISM-style index in the SURVEYS database.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun '20 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Business Barometer | 66.1 | 75.2 | 72.1 | 37.3 | 49.0 | 51.4 | 62.4 |
| ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 58.9 | 64.9 | 64.9 | 40.7 | 49.6 | 51.5 | 60.8 |
| Production | 60.0 | 70.6 | 72.9 | 34.2 | 47.9 | 51.3 | 64.6 |
| New Orders | 66.7 | 80.0 | 72.2 | 30.0 | 47.1 | 52.0 | 63.8 |
| Order Backlogs | 66.6 | 80.7 | 73.2 | 31.9 | 42.6 | 46.9 | 58.0 |
| Inventories | 37.5 | 41.8 | 46.8 | 39.2 | 44.7 | 48.7 | 55.4 |
| Employment | 44.0 | 49.8 | 56.4 | 32.6 | 41.8 | 49.6 | 55.2 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 86.5 | 82.3 | 76.4 | 67.3 | 66.4 | 55.6 | 64.8 |
| Prices Paid | 91.9 | 88.4 | 91.5 | 55.7 | 59.5 | 58.5 | 74.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
