Global| Jun 11 2010U.S. Business Inventories Again Rise Moderately
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Business inventories indeed have started to increase, but the rate of accumulation has been modest. April inventories posted a 0.4% increase and it was the sixth gain in seven months. The rise was enough to slow the y/y rate of [...]
Business inventories indeed have started to
increase, but the rate of accumulation has been modest. April
inventories posted a 0.4% increase and it was the sixth gain in seven
months. The rise was enough to slow the y/y rate of decumulation to
2.8% from -14.3% last summer, but the value of inventories remained
down 12.5% from the 2008 peak. Moreover, the increases have not kept up
with the improvement in sales and the I/S ratio remained at its
historic low of 1.23.
Retail inventories have started to rise and the 0.2% April uptick was the fifth modest increase following sharp declines during 2008 & 2009. Nevertheless, the level of inventories remained 13.6% below the 2008 peak. Accumulation this year owes to modest gains in the auto sector. Less autos, accumulation began only in March and it's been slight. Year-to-year inventories still are down 1.3% versus the peak decumulation rate of 7.7% last fall. The slowdown has been led by furniture & general merchandise stores while the decline in apparel store inventories has finally abated to -6.7% y/y.
Inventory accumulation in the factory sector compares with sharp decumulation through most of 2009. It has been accompanied by higher wholesale inventories, but here the improvement has been raised by higher oil prices. Less oil, wholesale inventories have been virtually flat for all of this year (-5.7% y/y).
The business sales and inventory data are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Business Inventories(%) | April | March | February | April y/y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -2.8 | -9.8 | 0.8 | 4.0 |
| Retail | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | -3.8 | -10.4 | -3.3 | 2.5 |
| Retail excl. Auto | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -1.3 | -4.9 | -1.9 | 2.7 |
| Wholesale | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -3.2 | -10.5 | 3.7 | 6.4 |
| Manufacturing | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | -1.6 | -8.7 | 2.2 | 3.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
