Global| Jul 06 2017U.S. ADP Private Payroll Gain Disappoints
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report for June indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 158,000 (2.0% y/y) following a 230,000 May gain, revised from 253,000. A 189,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report for June indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 158,000 (2.0% y/y) following a 230,000 May gain, revised from 253,000. A 189,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the change in the ADP figure and the change in nonfarm private sector payrolls as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
Small-sized business payrolls increased 17,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 58,000 rise. The weak increase compared to a 79,000 average earlier in the year. Medium-sized payrolls increased 91,000 (2.3% y/y), down from the 100,000 average from January to May. Large-sized payrolls gained a steady 50,000 (2.6% y/y).
Employment in the goods-producing sector remained unchanged (1.7% y/y) for the second month in the last three, down from the 88,000 Q1 average increase. Construction sector payrolls declined 2,000 (+3.3% y/y) versus a 33,000 average monthly gain earlier in the year. Jobs in the factory sector improved 6,000 (0.8% y/y), but the Q2 average monthly increase slowed significantly from 31,000 during Q1.
Private service sector payrolls rose 158,000 (2.0% y/y), below the growth earlier in the year. Professional & business services payrolls rose an improved 69,000 (3.5% y/y). The number of trade, transportation and utilities jobs increased a strengthened 30,000 (1.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Education & health services employment rose a lessened 28,000. The number of leisure & hospitality jobs rose 11,000, down by two-thirds from the increases earlier in the year. Financial activities jobs improved 10,000 (1.9% y/y) and remained nearly the slowest increase of the last four years. Employment in the information sector held steady (1.0% y/y), following three months of decline.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001 for the total and industry breakdown, and back to January 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 158 | 230 | 148 | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 17 | 58 | 37 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 91 | 111 | 93 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 50 | 61 | 18 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Goods-Producing | 0 | 31 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Construction | -2 | 23 | -14 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Manufacturing | 6 | 4 | 8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Service-Producing | 158 | 199 | 148 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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