Global| Dec 04 2013U.S. ADP Jobs Survey Unexpectedly Strengthens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Job growth recovered last month. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 215,000 rise (1.9% y/y) in nonfarm private sector jobs during November, the firmest increase in a year. Consensus expectations were for a 175,000 [...]
Job growth recovered last month. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 215,000 rise (1.9% y/y) in nonfarm private sector jobs during November, the firmest increase in a year. Consensus expectations were for a 175,000 employment gain in the Action Economics survey. The improvement followed upwardly revised increases of 184,000 and 185,000 during October and September, last month reported as 130,000 and 145,000. During the last three months, job increases averaged 196,000, the most since February. Growth remained down, however, versus its peak of 279,000 in February of last year.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.
Service-producing payrolls increased 176,000 last month (2.0% y/y). Jobs in trade, transportation and utilities grew 45,000 (1.8% y/y), employment in professional & businesses increased 38,000 (2.5% y/y) while financial activities headcount nudged up 5,000 (0.7% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 39,000 (1.3% y/y) as manufacturing employment gained 17,000 (0.2% y/y). Construction payrolls grew 18,000 (3.3% y/y).
Hiring amongst small businesses rose an improved 102,000 (1.8% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls advanced 48,000 (1.6% y/y), less than half of the gains early last year. Jobs at large-size companies rose 64,000 (2.3% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 215 | 184 | 185 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | -0.7% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 102 | 61 | 89 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | -0.7 |
| Medium Payroll (1-49) | 48 | 38 | 31 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | -0.5 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 65 | 85 | 65 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | -1.0 |
| Goods-Producing | 39 | 29 | 22 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | -4.2 |
| Manufacturing | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -2.7 |
| Service-Producing | 176 | 156 | 163 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
