Global| Dec 03 2014U.S. ADP Employment Growth Remains Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Hiring growth in November continued on a par with earlier months, according to the ADP/Moody's National Employment Report. Private sector employment grew 208,000 last month following a 233,000 October increase, revised from 230,000. [...]
Hiring growth in November continued on a par with earlier months, according to the ADP/Moody's National Employment Report. Private sector employment grew 208,000 last month following a 233,000 October increase, revised from 230,000. The y/y gain of 2.1% has been steady since the middle of 2012. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a 226,000 rise.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.
Small business payrolls rose a steady 101,000 (2.2% y/y). Medium-sized firms added 65,000 (2.1% y/y), down sharply from 122,000 in October. Large business payrolls recovered 42,000 (2.1% y/y) in November following a depressed 7,000 gain.
Hiring in the goods-producing sector increased 32,000 (2.1% y/y) after a strong 46,000 rise. Factory sector payrolls grew 11,000 as the 1.0% y/y rise maintained the strongest pace since early last year. Construction industry jobs increased 17,000 (3.8% y/y).
Service-providing payrolls grew 176,000 (2.2% y/y), roughly steady with the increases since late-2011. Industry growth varied. Trade, transportation and utilities added 49,000 jobs (1.9%), about the same as in October. Professional & business services jobs grew 37,000 (3.2% y/y) following two months of roughly 49,000 increase. Financial activities jobs increased a weak 5,000 (0.9% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 208 | 233 | 213 | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 101 | 103 | 92 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 65 | 122 | 45 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 42 | 7 | 76 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Goods-Producing | 32 | 46 | 49 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Manufacturing | 11 | 13 | 32 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Service-Producing | 176 | 187 | 164 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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