Global| Jun 04 2014U.S. ADP Employment Gain Moderates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 179,000 rise (2.1% y/y) in May nonfarm private sector jobs. Last month's gain followed increases of 215,000 and 198,000 in April and March, revised down from 220,000 and 209,000. [...]
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 179,000 rise (2.1% y/y) in May nonfarm private sector jobs. Last month's gain followed increases of 215,000 and 198,000 in April and March, revised down from 220,000 and 209,000. During the last three months, job increases averaged 198,000, below the peak of 259,000 in February of 2012. The May job gain fell short of 210,000 expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.
Service-producing payrolls improved 150,000 (2.1% y/y), the weakest rise since January. Jobs in professional and business services increased 47,000 (3.2% y/y); transportation and utilities employment grew 35,000 (2.0% y/y) while financial activities headcount gained 5,000 (0.5% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 29,000 (1.9% y/y). Factory sector payrolls gained 10,000 (0.7% y/y), the strongest rise since December. Construction payrolls increased 14,000 (3.8% y/y).
Hiring amongst small businesses totaled 82,000 (2.1% y/y). Medium-sized firms' payrolls advanced 61,000 (1.7% y/y) while jobs at large-size companies rose 37,000 (2.6% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Middle-Skill Jobs Lost in U.S. Labor Market Polarization from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 179 | 215 | 198 | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 82 | 76 | 77 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 61 | 82 | 53 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 37 | 56 | 68 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Goods-Producing | 29 | 21 | 29 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Manufacturing | 10 | 2 | 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Service-Producing | 150 | 194 | 169 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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