Global| Jun 18 2015U.K. Retail Sales Make a Surprising Gain
Summary
U.K. retail sales rose by 0.2% in May, bucking expectations that sales would drop. Sales are now up for two months in a row for the first time since November of last year. U.K. retail sales offer up no clear pattern of acceleration or [...]
U.K. retail sales rose by 0.2% in May, bucking expectations that sales would drop. Sales are now up for two months in a row for the first time since November of last year.
U.K. retail sales offer up no clear pattern of acceleration or deceleration. Overall sales are up over three months, down over six months, and up over 12 months. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, however, sales are consistently rising on those horizons and are slightly decelerating.
Expressed in real terms, U.K. sales trends also are showing deceleration from a pace of 4.5% over 12 months to 2.6% over six months to 2.2% over three months. Despite the two month rise in sales, U.K. sales patterns have not turned the trends higher.
In the quarter-to-date, sales are running at a strong pace of 4%. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, trends are up at the same 4% pace. And real sales are up at a 4% pace as well.
U.K. retail sales may have provided an upside surprise in May, but it is not a surprise than changes any significant trends. Still, growth in the quarter-to-data is quite a bit stronger than recent three-month and six-month growth rates and that with only one month left to complete the Q2 picture. From these various fragments of growth rates, it is hard to paint a consistent picture of what U.K. retail sales are doing. For now there are too many growth rate cross currents to pin down the underlying trend.
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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