Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jun 29 2020

Texas Factory Sector Outlook Indicates Improvement in June

Summary

• Component increases are broad-based. • Expectations also improve broadly. The Dallas Federal Reserve reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index increased to -6.1% from the near-record [...]


• Component increases are broad-based.

• Expectations also improve broadly.

The Dallas Federal Reserve reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index increased to -6.1% from the near-record low of -49.2% in May (data extend back to June 2004).

All of the business indicators improved this month as the production index rose to 13.6% following three straight negative figures. The growth rate of new orders index improved to -5.8% from -30.8% while the unfilled orders index improved to -2.3% from -17.4% in May. The shipments index also rebounded, following a severe May drop, and the delivery times measure also improved.

The employment index rose to -1.5% this month, its highest level since January. The wages & benefits measure improved to 6.8% following two months of negative readings.

The index of prices received improved to a still-negative -4.7%. but indicated the slowest rate of price deflation since February. The raw materials price measure of 12.3% was its second consecutive positive reading and the highest since December of last year.

The index of expected business conditions in six months rose to 19.7% in June from -19.0% in May. Each of the future business indicators improved but the future new orders and future shipments readings were notably improved. The expected employment index surged to 18.6%, its first positive measure in four months. The future capital expenditures also rose.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) Jun May Apr Jun '19 2019 2018 2017
Current General Business Activity Index -6.1 -49.2 -74.0 -12.6 -1.1 25.8 20.6
   Production 13.6 -28.0 -55.6 9.2 8.9 21.4 20.2
   Growth Rate of New Orders -5.8 -30.8 -62.7 -6.4 -1.1 14.8 11.4
   Employment -1.5 -11.5 -22.0 9.2 9.5 20.0 11.4
   Wages & Benefits 6.8 -0.2 -3.4 22.0 23.5 29.7 22.2
   Prices Received for Finished Goods -4.7 -19.4 -25.0 1.4 2.5 17.6 12.7
General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months 19.7 -19.0 -43.0 -3.3 6.4 31.6 34.6
   Production 38.7 29.7 -13.2 24.9 35.6 48.6 46.9
   Growth Rate of New Orders 32.8 13.0 -16.1 16.6 25.2 35.8 37.7
   Employment 18.6 -3.5 -7.9 19.8 26.1 37.7 35.3
   Wages & Benefits 21.6 12.7 -1.1 39.5 39.7 50.4 43.4
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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