Global| Nov 24 2014Texas Factory Sector Activity Outlook Suggests Continued Growth
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated that business conditions remained positive this month. There were numerous indications, however, of slower growth. The overall business activity index improved m/m as well as y/y. Behind [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated that business conditions remained positive this month. There were numerous indications, however, of slower growth. The overall business activity index improved m/m as well as y/y. Behind the overall number, however, was a deterioration in the production component to its lowest level since December. The volume of new orders also fell to its lowest level in three months and the company outlook measure deteriorated modestly. Employment growth eased to its lowest level in six months while pricing power improved moderately to its best in nine months.
Expected business conditions, nevertheless, improved slightly. The reading for expected business activity recovered m/m but remained below the December high. The company outlook deteriorated. The production outlook remained in the range of the last several months but was reduced from the December high. Expected new orders volumes were stable at a level moderated from last year's highs, but expected shipments volumes improved modestly. Future wages & benefits paid improved slightly but also remained below their January high.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov '13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current General Business Activity Index (% Balance) | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| Production | 6.0 | 13.7 | 17.6 | 15.8 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 6.9 |
| New Orders Volume | 5.6 | 14.2 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 5.7 |
| Number of Employees | 9.6 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 11.8 | 8.9 |
| Prices Received for Finished Goods | 9.7 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 9.2 |
| Expected Conditions in Six Months | 18.3 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 10.0 |
| Production | 40.9 | 41.2 | 40.0 | 36.9 | 37.1 | 32.4 | 40.2 |
| New Orders Volume | 37.6 | 38.1 | 34.6 | 37.0 | 34.3 | 29.5 | 37.1 |
| Wages & Benefits | 42.3 | 40.8 | 40.7 | 49.0 | 38.2 | 34.2 | 35.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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