Global| Oct 07 2003September Chain Store Sales Down Despite Last Week's Surge
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Chain store sales surged 1.3% last week and recovered much of the 2.5% decline during the prior three weeks, according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Despite the late-month recovery, sales for the full month of September fell 0.7% versus [...]
Chain store sales surged 1.3% last week and recovered much of the 2.5% decline during the prior three weeks, according to the BTM-UBSW survey.
Despite the late-month recovery, sales for the full month of September fell 0.7% versus August. The level of sales in early October was slightly below the September average.
Weakness in September also was indicated by the Redbook Survey of general merchandise store sales which fell 1.3% (+3.2% y/y) versus August.
During the last five years there has been a 61% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in the BTM-UBSW measure of chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline. Using the Redbook tally there has been a 72% correlation with the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The BTM-UBSW retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.The Redbook Survey samples same-store sales at general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 10/04/03 | 9/27/03 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 424.0 | 418.7 | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% |
by Tom Moeller October 7, 2003
The Small Business Optimism Index published by the National Federation of Independent Business fell last month to the lowest level since March.
The decline reflected a drop to 10% in the percent of small business owners planning to increase employment. That figure still is up versus readings in the 1-8% range earlier this year. Nineteen percent of firms had one or more jobs open. That is near the middle of the range in place since early last year.
The percent of owners planning to raise capital expenditures in the next 3-6 months fell sharply to 26%.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 101.9 | 104.6 | 0.9% | 101.2 | 98.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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