Global| Feb 02 2005Regulatory Change Raises Unemployment in Germany, Even as Jobs Show Modest Growth
Summary
Press headlines today highlight the jump in German unemployment in January, which was reported this morning by the German Federal Labor Agency: a substantial increase of 227,000 seasonally adjusted, or 5.1% on the month. Definitional [...]
Press headlines today highlight the jump in German unemployment in January, which was reported this morning by the German Federal Labor Agency: a substantial increase of 227,000 seasonally adjusted, or 5.1% on the month. Definitional changes account for much of this move and unfortunately, that has overshadowed the other news of the day, that employment also increased in its latest report, which covers November.
Some welfare recipients had previously not been included in the unemployment statistics and they were added in January. This change had been previously announced, prompting participants in various forecast surveys to project an increase of 125,000 to 150,000, seasonally adjusted. However, concern emerged, particularly among public officials, as the actual, unadjusted number of unemployed pierced the 5 million level, a post-World War II record, and the unemployment rate reached above 12%. Further regulatory changes are scheduled, though, and the reported number of unemployed will likely go higher.
This news has overshadowed a modest uptrend in the number of people employed. While not vigorous, this number has increased in every month of 2004 and in November stood 273,000 higher, or 0.7%, than its trough in December 2003. This gain represents a 39% recovery of the jobs lost in the 2-1/2-year contraction in employment from its peak in May 2001.
| Jan 2005 | Dec 2004 | Nov 2004 | Oct 2004 |
Year Ago | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment (thousands) | -- | -- | 38,551 | 38,521 | 38,283 | 38,407* | 38,316 | 38,698 |
| Change | -- | -- | +30K | +30K | +0.7% | +0.3%* | -1.0% | -0.6% |
| Unemployment (thousands), SA | 4,714 | 4,487 | 4,469 | 4,460 | 4,269 | -- | -- | -- |
| Not Seasonally Adjusted | 5,037 | 4,464 | 4,257 | 4,207 | 4,597 | 4,387 | 4,380 | 4,071 |
| Unemployment Rate ( %), SA | 11.4 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 10.2 | -- | -- | -- |
| Not Seasonally Adjusted | 12.1 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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