Global| Nov 13 2003Q3 Growth Turns Positive in Germany, France and the Netherlands
Summary
GDP picked up in Europe in the third quarter, according to early and "flash" reports from Germany, France and the Netherlands. An easing of the negative trade situation that weighed on this region earlier in the year appears to be a [...]
GDP picked up in Europe in the third quarter, according to early and "flash" reports from Germany, France and the Netherlands. An easing of the negative trade situation that weighed on this region earlier in the year appears to be a main factor in the upturns.
Only the Netherlands reported any details today. They show that exports were basically flat in Q3 after a large decline in Q2. More directly, domestic demand, up 0.2% on the quarter, showed its first positive move in five quarters. Dutch consumers bought more and government consumption stabilized after a huge Q2 decline. Government investment increased. However, private investment remains very weak.
In Germany, the upswing, mild though it is, was apparently driven by a rise in exports. The Federal Statistics Office will not publish details until next Thursday, November 20, but their press release today cites a gain in exports and a decline in imports. However, the German statisticians further explain that domestic demand continued to falter. No detail or descriptive commentary was released by INSEE, the French statistical agency, although separate data on household purchases of manufactured goods suggests that consumption turned higher in Q3. France will also make its detailed GDP report next Thursday.
| Percent Changes | Qtr/QtrYear/ Year | 4th Qtr/4th Qtr||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd Qtr 2003 | 2nd Qtr 2003 | 1st Qtr 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | ||
| Germany | 0.22 | -0.16 | -0.24 | -0.20 | 0.34 | 0.42 | 0.93 |
| France | 0.40 | -0.34 | 0.08 | -0.09 | 1.34 | 0.70 | 3.84 |
| Netherlands | 0.12 | -0.59 | -0.33 | -1.06 | 0.13 | 0.51 | 2.13 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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