Global| Dec 15 2016Philadelphia Fed Factory Business Outlook Survey Strengthens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to 21.5 during December from November's 7.6. It was the highest level since November 2014. The reading for all of 2016 [...]
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to 21.5 during December from November's 7.6. It was the highest level since November 2014. The reading for all of 2016 increased to 4.8, but remained below the 2010 high of 12.1. The latest monthly reading compared to expectations for 9.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The ISM-Adjusted General Business Conditions Index, constructed by Haver Analytics eased to 53.8 this month, but remained near the two-year high. The ISM-Adjusted headline index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). This figure is comparable to the ISM Composite Index. During the last ten years, there has been a 71% correlation between the adjusted Philadelphia Fed Index and real GDP growth.
There was mixed movement amongst the component series this month. New orders fell, but remained near the two-year high. Shipments, however, increased to a two-year high. Unfilled orders and delivery times improved, but inventories backpedaled to the lowest level in three months.
The employment component turned positive for the first time this year. It jumped to the highest level since May 2015. During the last ten years, there has been an 81% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in manufacturing sector payrolls. The average workweek reading jumped to the highest point since April 2011.
Prices paid strengthened to the highest level since July 2011. Prices received fell, but remained positive.
The future business activity index surged to the highest level since January of last year. The component series exhibited broad-based strength.
The survey panel consists of 150 manufacturing companies in Federal Reserve District III (consisting of southeastern PA, southern NJ and Delaware). The diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease in activity. The ISM adjusted figure, calculated by Haver Analytics, is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each). Each diffusion index is the sum of the percent responding "higher" and one-half of the percent responding "same."
The figures from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database. The Action Economics figure is available in AS1REPNA.
| Philadelphia Fed - Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (%, SA) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec'15 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Factory Sector Business Conditions | 21.5 | 7.6 | 9.7 | -10.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 18.3 |
| ISM-Adjusted Business Conditions | 53.8 | 55.3 | 49.8 | 45.2 | 48.2 | 49.4 | 53.7 |
| New Orders | 13.9 | 18.6 | 16.3 | -11.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 14.9 |
| Shipments | 22.0 | 19.5 | 15.3 | -2.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 16.1 |
| Unfilled Orders | 5.7 | 4.1 | -0.7 | -17.6 | -5.5 | -5.1 | 3.3 |
| Delivery Time | 7.6 | 6.1 | -0.3 | -6.1 | -4.5 | -6.4 | 0.6 |
| Inventories | 1.1 | 13.4 | -12.8 | -5.7 | -9.7 | -1.5 | 1.7 |
| Number of Employees | 6.4 | -2.6 | -4.0 | 2.2 | -5.6 | 3.9 | 10.5 |
| Prices Paid | 29.4 | 27.5 | 7.0 | -8.3 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 21.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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