Global| Aug 03 2007NTC Shows Euro MFG is Slowing… but oh so slowly
Summary
The NTC MFG survey shows that among EMU members in the table only Austria and Greece saw their MFG sectors improve month to month in July. Over three months you can add The Netherlands to that list. Over six months while EMU-wide MFG [...]
The NTC MFG survey shows that among EMU members in the table only Austria and Greece saw their MFG sectors improve month to month in July. Over three months you can add The Netherlands to that list. Over six months while EMU-wide MFG conditions eased in terms of the NTC index, only four EMU countries in the table saw their MFG sectors weaken (Germany, Italy, Spain and Austria). Over 12-months, however, all EMU members in this table except Greece are weaker. To be sure the slowdown in the EMU MFG sector is real and is widespread. It is also one that is in slow motion so that the overall MFG reading is still a relatively strong reading in the top 32 percent of its range (range since March of 2000). Previously the average EMU-wide drop in the NTC MFG index 13-months from its peak was 8%. In 2007 the drop 13-months after its peak is just 4.8%, the smallest by far. And although other cycles had peaked at a higher point (in 2000, for example) since 2000 this is still the highest index reading for Euro MFG 13 months after it had peaked. So the Euro-economy is proving itself to be very resilient even though the MFG slowing is quite widespread.
| Jul-07 | Jun-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Percentile* | |
| Euro-13 | 54.90 | 55.56 | 55.16 | 55.31 | 55.89 | 68.2% |
| Germany | 56.75 | 57.33 | 56.71 | 56.88 | 57.71 | 78.0% |
| France | 53.34 | 53.75 | 53.80 | 53.75 | 54.50 | 49.6% |
| Italy | 53.34 | 53.98 | 54.11 | 54.05 | 54.44 | 60.2% |
| Spain | 53.22 | 55.05 | 53.86 | 54.87 | 55.50 | 69.6% |
| Austria | 53.81 | 53.54 | 53.80 | 54.61 | 56.07 | 67.5% |
| Greece | 53.95 | 53.48 | 53.84 | 53.76 | 53.04 | 54.3% |
| Ireland | 53.09 | 53.98 | 53.00 | 52.89 | 52.98 | 69.2% |
| Netherlands | 58.19 | 58.84 | 57.72 | 57.66 | 57.09 | 90.3% |
| EU | ||||||
| UK | 55.74 | 54.74 | 55.11 | 54.85 | 54.00 | 95.2% |
| *Percentile is over range since March 2000 | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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