Global| May 12 2010JOLTS: U.S. Job Openings Steady But Hires & Fires Diverge
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that labor market conditions remained in a state of flux during March. The latest Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated that the job openings rate held steady at 2.0% with a [...]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that labor market conditions remained in a state of flux during March. The latest Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated that the job openings rate held steady at 2.0% with a downwardly revised February reading. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. Job availability fell 1.8% after the downwardly revised February decline. Nevertheless, the latest availability level was improved by 0.9% year-to-year. Last year job availability fell 17.8% following a 29.7% decline during 2008. The series dates back to December 2000.
Improvement in the government sector's job openings rate compensated for a modest deterioration in the private-sector during the last two months and returned it to the highest level since early last year. The private-sector job openings rate was steady following modest improvement in January. That reflected fewer professional, education & health services jobs but the number of factory and retail trade jobs grew strongly.
The hires rate moved up modestly to its highest since late-2008. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment.The level of hiring rose 10% from its low in June of last year. The gain was led by a 48.5% rise in hiring in the construction sector and a 28.6% rise in factory jobs.
The job separations rate remained at the series' low of 3.1% with the actual number of separations off 14.7% year-to-year. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The layoff & discharge rate alone remained at the nineteen-month low of 1.4% as the actual number of layoffs fell 25.7% y/y after the 12.6% increase during 2009.
The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 but has followed the movement in nonfarm payrolls, though the actual correlation between the two series is low. A description of the Jolts survey and the latest release from the U.S. Department of Labor is available here and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) | March | February | January | March '09 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Job Openings, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 3.1 |
| Total (000s) | 2,694 | 2,647 | 2,854 | 2,671 | 2,531 | 3,078 | 4,378 |
| Hires, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 37.3 | 41.1 | 45.9 |
| Total (000s) | 4,242 | 4,011 | 4,087 | 4,095 | 48,649 | 56,082 | 63,234 |
| Layoffs & Discharges, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 20.7 | 17.7 | 16.5 |
| Total (000s) | 1,830 | 1,823 | 1,953 | 2,462 | 27,683 | 24,589 | 22,606 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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