Global| Oct 01 2003Japanese TANKAN Shows First Positive Result in 2-1/2 Years
Summary
Large manufacturing companies in Japan reported the first net favorable result in the Bank of Japan's quarterly TANKAN business sentiment survey since the fourth quarter of 2000, as the Japanese economy shows further signs of pulling [...]
Large manufacturing companies in Japan reported the first net favorable result in the Bank of Japan's quarterly TANKAN business sentiment survey since the fourth quarter of 2000, as the Japanese economy shows further signs of pulling out of its recent recessionary slump. Sentiment registered a +1 in September compared with -5 in June. Forecasts had called for a neutral, zero result. In fact, readings were positive or zero in only 7 of 15 industry groups, but readings improved from June's survey in 10 of the groups, particularly lumber and the various machinery sectors.
Nonmanufacturing industries showed no net change in sentiment at a -13 reading. A large improvement in communications, along with modest gains in a couple of other segments, was offset by deteriorations in retailing and transportation.
These TANKAN results were corroborated by the new Purchasing Managers Index for Japan manufacturers. This survey, begun just in October 2001, rose to 53.01 in September from 52.48 in August and 50.36 in June. These readings too indicate a modest degree of expansion in the manufacturing industries.
| Current Business Conditions | Sept Q 2003 | June Q 2003 | Sept Q 2002 | Q/Q | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Manufacturing Companies | +1 | -5 | -14 | 6 | 15 | -20 | -23 | 4 |
| Large Nonmanufacturing Companies | -13 | -13 | -13 | 0 | 0 | -17 | -16 | -12 |
| Purchasing Managers' Index: Manufacturing | 52.20 | 49.84 | 50.94 | 4.7% | 2.5% | 49.35 | 39.65* | N.A. |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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