Global| Jan 30 2009Japan Hits The Skids Hard In December
Summary
The drop off in Japan’s industrial production index is now extraordinary as it has posted a month-to-month drop of nearly double digits. Over three months Japan’s IP is plunging at a 58% annual rate. It is also down by 22.5% Yr/Yr. [...]
The drop off in Japan’s industrial production index is now
extraordinary as it has posted a month-to-month drop of nearly double
digits. Over three months Japan’s IP is plunging at a 58% annual rate.
It is also down by 22.5% Yr/Yr. Transportation output dropped by 14% in
November and its three-month annualized growth rate is -79%.
Intermediate goods are taking the most sever beating in December. But
consumer goods output is off by 7.9% in December. Investment goods
output is dropping by 4.8% in December. There is no safe haven.
Japan has been sliding for some time. But the figures from
overnight are shocking with household spending off and housing stars
off and construction orders plunging. Unemployment has jumped and
Japan’s manufacturing PMI has dropped for eleven straight months and to
a record low.
Germany, another export dependent country, heard its deputy
finance minister today warn that the hammer blow to exports was
continuing and the domestic economy was getting hit even harder as a
result. The lesson is to be wary of export oriented economies since the
export market is drying up fast, however you define it.
| Japan Industrial Production Trends | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m/m % | Saar % | Yr/Yr | Qtr-2-Date | |||||
| seas adjusted | Dec-08 | Nov-08 | Oct-08 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Yr-Ago | % AR |
| mining&MFG | -9.6% | -8.5% | -3.1% | -58.8% | -37.4% | -22.5% | 2.3% | -39.8% |
| Total Industry | -9.2% | -7.9% | -3.4% | -57.4% | -36.2% | -21.7% | 2.3% | -39.2% |
| MFG | -9.6% | -8.5% | -3.2% | -59.0% | -37.5% | -22.5% | 2.4% | -39.8% |
| Textiles | -4.4% | -1.5% | -0.2% | -22.3% | -18.7% | -15.7% | -4.3% | -12.7% |
| T-port | -14.3% | -14.3% | -7.4% | -78.6% | -55.3% | -33.9% | 5.2% | -59.7% |
| Product Group | ||||||||
| Consumer Gds | -7.9% | -6.2% | -2.2% | -49.1% | -28.6% | -16.8% | 2.4% | -33.9% |
| Intermediate Gds | -12.5% | -8.6% | -4.7% | -66.4% | -44.0% | -26.7% | 4.8% | -45.5% |
| Investment Gds | -4.8% | -9.3% | -2.6% | -50.2% | -31.4% | -19.4% | -2.5% | -31.6% |
| Miining | -1.4% | 7.6% | -7.5% | -7.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% | 4.3% | -20.9% |
| Electric&Gas | -3.8% | 0.4% | 1.4% | -8.3% | -3.5% | -4.5% | 2.4% | -3.4% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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