Global| Mar 18 2009January IP Drops but the Pace of Decline Slows
Summary
Italy’s industrial production (IP) dropped again in January but the decline was puny in comparison with the recent string of monthly disasters. This month’s drop of 0.2% keeps the string of declines alive but, ironically, gives some [...]
Italy’s industrial production (IP) dropped again in January
but the decline was puny in comparison with the recent string of
monthly disasters. This month’s drop of 0.2% keeps the string of
declines alive but, ironically, gives some room for hope to come alive
that these declines will not go on forever.
The declines in the quarter–to-date are still quite severe –
despite the small drop in January. That’s because the level of
industrial activity at the end of the quarter in Q4-2008 is so low that
the first month of 2009 leaves the early quarter reading at a very low
level compared to the Q4 2008 average level.
All the main sectors industrial sectors have been showing
strong declines. Italy’s GDP has been dropping and its neighbors in the
Euro Area are experiencing continuing weakness. It is far too early to
treat the smaller IP decline in Italy as the beginning of good news on
the industrial front. The news is welcome but the good news is the
first such news and appears totally out of context and so far without
support elsewhere. Generally this is not the sector where you expect to
see good new appear first.
| Italy IP Excluding Construction | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saar except m/m | Jan-09 | Dec-08 | Nov-08 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Quarter-to-date |
| IP-MFG | -0.2% | -2.7% | -3.2% | -21.9% | -20.7% | -14.6% | -17.2% |
| Consumer Goods | -1.7% | -0.9% | 0.4% | -8.5% | -8.4% | -8.2% | -12.3% |
| Capital Goods | 0.5% | -3.5% | -2.9% | -21.3% | -19.5% | -15.0% | -15.9% |
| Intermediate Goods | -2.0% | -4.7% | -3.5% | -33.9% | -30.9% | -21.8% | -32.2% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
