Global| Sep 04 2009Italy's Trade Trends Turn
Summary
Both Italy’s exports and imports are beginning to turn their plunging growth rates higher. The Yr/Yr trend has begun to turn (see chart) for both exports and imports. The balance did swing to surplus a month ago but it still shows a [...]
Both Italy’s exports and imports are beginning to turn their
plunging growth rates higher. The Yr/Yr trend has begun to turn (see
chart) for both exports and imports. The balance did swing to surplus a
month ago but it still shows a reduced deficit in the current month
compared to earlier months. Over three months the export rate of
decline has been cut to an annual rate of about -8% compared to -18%
for imports.
For exports transportation equipment, capital goods and other
goods are still showing outsized Yr/Yr declines of -20% or more. Food
exports and consumer goods exports are dropping at a slower pace of
less than 10%.
Imports are showing Yr/Yr declines of 16% for capital goods
and 44% for other goods. Transport equipment imports are declining at
an 8.6% pace compared to foods and beverages with a drop of 0.7% and
consumer goods imports that are advancing Yr/Yr. services imports are
declining rapidly Yr/Yr as well.
The more rapid drop in imports cuts the flow of an item that
diminishes growth since imports siphon off domestic demand to foreign
producers. Italy’s exports in contrast have held up better and are
maintaining their levels better than imports. In this way trade is
helping to prop up Italian GDP.
| Italy's Trade Trends | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m/mo % monthly rate | Period Specified saar | ||||||
| Seasonally Adjusted | Jun-09 | May-09 | Apr-09 | 3-MO | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr-Ago |
| Current Account Bal | €€ (2,378) | €€ 470 | €€ (2,959) | €€ (1,622) | €€ (2,919) | €€ (3,907) | €€ (3,700) |
| Goods Balance | €€ 939 | €€ 1,662 | €€ 1,096 | €€ 1,232 | €€ 544 | €€ 1 | €€ 267 |
| Exports | -2.6% | -4.4% | 5.1% | -8.2% | -30.9% | -23.7% | -4.4% |
| Imports | 0.5% | -7.0% | 1.7% | -18.3% | -36.2% | -27.6% | 0.4% |
| Services Balance | €€ (788) | €€ (429) | €€ (1,061) | €€ (759) | €€ (822) | €€ (814) | €€ (488) |
| Exports | 3.6% | -5.5% | 0.6% | -6.0% | -22.9% | -14.8% | 5.7% |
| Imports | 9.3% | -13.7% | 0.5% | -19.3% | -12.2% | -8.2% | -1.3% |
| Not Seasonally Adjusted | All Yr/Yr | ||||||
| Exports | Jun-09 | Jun-08 | Jun-07 | Jun-06 | |||
| Food&Bev | -1.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 10.5% | |||
| Capital Gds | -21.9% | -3.7% | 15.1% | 10.8% | |||
| Transport | -29.6% | 2.3% | 11.4% | 8.4% | |||
| Consumer Gds | -9.4% | -8.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | |||
| Other Gds | -32.0% | -10.2% | 13.7% | 17.8% | |||
| Imports | Jun-09 | Jun-08 | Jun-07 | Jun-06 | |||
| Food&Bev | -0.7% | -1.9% | 3.3% | 7.2% | |||
| Capital Gds | -16.1% | -10.9% | 7.3% | 1.7% | |||
| Transport | -8.6% | -15.3% | 11.0% | -0.5% | |||
| Consumer Gds | 1.3% | -3.3% | 1.7% | 12.7% | |||
| Other Gds | -44.9% | 18.0% | 0.0% | 45.5% | |||
| Balances in Mlns of euros | |||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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