Global| Jun 18 2004Italy Industrial Orders Gain as Euro Softens
Summary
Exchange rates matter. The latest data on Italian industry orders indicate that trends in orders from foreign customers and in the value of the euro tend to shift more or less at the same time. In our graph of year-on-year percent [...]
Exchange rates matter. The latest data on Italian industry orders indicate that trends in orders from foreign customers and in the value of the euro tend to shift more or less at the same time. In our graph of year-on-year percent changes, the euro exchange rate slowed its rate of gain (inverted in the chart) at almost the same time that foreign orders turned toward a slower rate of decline. These orders are now rising rapidly and the exchange rate has fallen outright, although it remains higher than a year ago (and has stabilized over the last few weeks).
Domestic orders at Italian industry have also picked up somewhat since early last year, but not nearly as vigorously as foreign orders. In fact, in the latest month, April, domestic orders were barely above those in April 2003, although other recent months have seen stronger comparisons. Even so, while April's domestic orders stand 6.9% above their low last May, foreign orders are 11.4% above their low in March 2003.
Renewed growth in total orders over the past year has been spread across a number of industries. Textiles, wood products, furniture, metals and precision equipment are all rising. Specialized fibers and machinery are mixed and leather and paper are still weak.
| Index 2000=100 | Apr 2004 | Mar 2004 | Feb 2004 | Yr/Yr % Change | Annual Average|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | |||||
| Total Orders | 99.6 | 98.5 | 99.2 | 3.4 | 94.9 | 99.0 | 97.0 |
| Domestic | 97.8 | 98.7 | 98.0 | 0.1 | 93.5 | 97.4 | 96.6 |
| Foreign | 103.7 | 98.1 | 101.9 | 11.3 | 98.1 | 102.6 | 97.7 |
| Memo: Euro ($/€) | 1.1989 | 1.2261 | 1.2640 | 10.4 | 1.1317 | 0.9453 | 0.8955 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
More Economy in Brief
