Global| Jul 25 2007INSEE Biz Index Holds its Ground: Uptrend Intact
Summary
The INSEE Biz index for French industry is still in its impressive uptrend. Yet it is only in the 74th percentile of its range and it is about 10% above its mean value. The index is off peak and while the trend is technically still in [...]
The INSEE Biz index for French industry is still in its impressive uptrend. Yet it is only in the 74th percentile of its range and it is about 10% above its mean value. The index is off peak and while the trend is technically still in place it is appropriate to wonder if the uptrend is abating.
Orders and demand trends are still firm but so is the series ‘likely price trend’. The MFG portion of the survey shows a bit more of a loss in momentum. The Production trend reading fell off in July to 17 from 24 but still ranking in the mid-70s in terms of the percentile of its range of values - a firm result. The recent trend for production assessment ticked up in July; the likely trend assessment also rose to 15 from 14. MFG prices expected are only at a reading of 6 and reside in their 62nd percentile of their range, a more modest showing than for French industry overall.
On balance, the readings from France are still solid and encouraging. Some of the inflation responses are, however, on the high side, and for overall industry, with a bit of momentum.
| Since Jan 1990 | Since Jan 1990 | |||||||||
| Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | Percentile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | |
| Climate | 110 | 110 | 108 | 112 | 74.0 | 41 | 123 | 73 | 50 | 101 |
| Production | ||||||||||
| Recent Trend | 16 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 72.5 | 44 | 44 | -58 | 102 | -6 |
| Likely trend | 31 | 27 | 22 | 21 | 66.7 | 20 | 63 | -33 | 96 | 7 |
| Orders/Demand | ||||||||||
| Orders&Demand | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 73.6 | 33 | 25 | -62 | 87 | -15 |
| Foreign Orders & Demand | 5 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 70.8 | 46 | 31 | -58 | 89 | -11 |
| Prices | ||||||||||
| Likely Sales Prices Trend | 10 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 70.2 | 26 | 24 | -23 | 47 | 0 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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