Global| Jul 21 2005Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims At Four Month Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped a sharp 34,000 to 303,000 last week after a 16,000 increase the week earlier which was little revised. The latest figure is the lowest since mid-April. Consensus expectations had been [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped a sharp 34,000 to 303,000 last week after a 16,000 increase the week earlier which was little revised. The latest figure is the lowest since mid-April. Consensus expectations had been for 328,000 claims.
The latest also covers the survey period for July nonfarm payrolls and fell 13,000 (4.1%) from the June period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims dropped to 318,00 (-6.3% y/y), the lowest level since early March.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance reversed about all of the prior week's increase with a 41,000 decline.
The insured unemployment rate fell back to the four year low of 2.0%.
Age and Education Effects on the Unemployment Rate from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 07/16/05 | 07/09/05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 303 | 337 | -11.9% | 343 | 402 | 404 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,577 | -8.8% | 2,926 | 3,531 | 3,570 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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