Global| Sep 21 2006Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Rose More Than Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 7,000 last week to 318,000 reversing two weeks of moderate decline. Consensus expectations had been for 310,000 claims. Last year, claims surged in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 7,000 last week to 318,000 reversing two weeks of moderate decline. Consensus expectations had been for 310,000 claims. Last year, claims surged in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
The latest figure covers the survey period for September nonfarm payrolls and filings rose 4,000 (1.3%) from the August period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims was unchanged at 315,000 (-15.0% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 29,000 after a 9,000 increase the prior week that was half the rise initially reported.
The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.9% where it has been since February.
Would an Inflation Target Help Anchor U.S. Inflation Expectations? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 9/16/06 | 9/09/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 318 | 311 | -24.5% | 332 | 343 | 403 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,461 | -6.9% | 2,662 | 2,924 | 3,532 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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