Global| Aug 19 2004Initial Jobless Claims Edge Lower Again
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell 3,000 to 331,000 last week and the prior week was up revised marginally. Claims were once again lower than expected; the consensus forecast was 335,000 claims. The 4-week moving average of [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell 3,000 to 331,000 last week and the prior week was up revised marginally. Claims were once again lower than expected; the consensus forecast was 335,000 claims.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims fell to 337,000 (-15.1% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 16,000 following a revised 13,000 drop the week prior. These continuing claims, that is, the total number of unemployment benefit recipients, run closely parallel to the total number unemployed in the monthly employment survey; the correlation has been 82% over the last 15 years.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.3%, where it has hovered since the end of April.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 08/14/04 | 08/07/04 | 07/31/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 331 | 334 | 337 | -14.7% | 399 | 403 | 403 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2904 | 2888 | -19.3% | 3,516 | 3,564 | 2974 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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