Global| May 26 2009IFO Shows Sector Indices Have Bottomed...Maybe
Summary
IFO improves, barely -- The IFO survey is in the same boat as the rest of the recent economic indicators. The index is off its low, and rising but still showing contraction. The improvement in May continued but was very slight for [...]
IFO improves, barely -- The
IFO survey is in the same boat as the rest of the recent economic
indicators. The index is off its low, and rising but still showing
contraction. The improvement in May continued but was very slight for
most sectors. Manufacturing was unchanged at a reading of -38 on the
month. Construction actually got worse in the month. Despite the
worsening of construction it remains in the 46th
percentile of range since 1991-about a middling reading. Construction
has been pressured for some time. MFG is in the bottom seven percentile
of its range. Wholesaling and
retailing are in the bottom 17th to 22nd
percentile of their respective ranges.
Outlook uncertain -- Germany is still quite weak. There is a legacy of bottoming and rebounding but on the other hand the rebound trends is a mild gradient and the sense of upward momentum is slight. The future is still in doubt.
| Summary of IFO Sector Diffusion readings: CLIMATE | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLIMATE Sum | Current | Last Mo | Since Jan 1991* | |||||
| May-09 | Apr-09 | average | Median | Max | Min | range | % range | |
| All Sectors | -32.1 | -33.1 | -9.0 | -9.6 | 17.5 | -36.2 | 53.7 | 7.6% |
| MFG | -38.0 | -38.0 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 27.5 | -42.9 | 70.4 | 7.0% |
| Construction | -26.3 | -24.3 | -29.0 | -30.3 | 0.7 | -50.1 | 50.8 | 46.9% |
| Wholesale | -28.3 | -30.6 | -14.4 | -16.0 | 23.9 | -39.0 | 62.9 | 17.0% |
| Retail | -21.2 | -26.5 | -15.6 | -15.0 | 19.2 | -40.2 | 59.4 | 32.0% |
| Services | -5.0 | -7.0 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 28.5 | -14.5 | 43.0 | 22.1% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
