Global| Jun 21 2002Help Wanted Advertising Up Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising rose slightly in April. The modest decline in continuing claims for unemployment insurance may suggest hiring improvement when the May help-wanted figures are released, [...]
The Conference Board's National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising rose slightly in April. The modest decline in continuing claims for unemployment insurance may suggest hiring improvement when the May help-wanted figures are released, but it likely will not be large.
During the past twenty years there has been a 40% correlation between the monthly change in help-wanted advertising and the change in continuing claims. The correlation between the one-year percent changes is 89%.
Job opportunities improved in the Middle Atlantic and East North Central regions of the country but remained weak elsewhere.
The figures are seasonally adjusted.
| Conference Board | April '02 | Mar '02 | April '01 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nat'l Help Wanted Index | 47 | 46 | 65 |
by Tom Moeller June 21, 2002
The recent rally in the market for ten-year notes has been prompted both by a flight to quality and a reduced probability of near term Fed tightening. The flattening of the spread between the 10 Year and the Fed funds rate indicates that the market views the inflationary consequences of no Fed action as diminished.
Nevertheless, the Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has moved higher recently. It is designed to signal turns in the inflation rate with a median lead of nine months.
The FIG utilizes indications from commodity and labor markets, capacity measures, import prices, the yield curve, debt and real estate markets.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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