Global| Aug 02 2004Global Manufacturing Performance Improves in July
Summary
Manufacturing activity picked up in July after June's slight moderation in growth. The NTC Research global purchasing managers' index rose to 57.3 from 56.6 in June. More widespread gains in output and new orders were generally [...]
Manufacturing activity picked up in July after June's slight moderation in growth. The NTC Research global purchasing managers' index rose to 57.3 from 56.6 in June. More widespread gains in output and new orders were generally responsible. Importantly, in most regions, employment looked better. In the Euro-Zone, that index reached 49.7, nearly back to the 50% breakeven point and the best level since early 2001. In Japan, this component eased, but remained high enough that the last three months are the best such span in this not-quite-three-year-old survey. The global employment gauge edged down from 53.2 to 52.7, held back by a decrease in the US ISM employment index, even though the latter stands at a very high level.
Among various countries, the PMI increased most in Denmark, Ireland, Japan, the Netherlands and the UK. It rose modestly in Italy and Germany. In all these, the index is well above 50%, indicating broad growth. In Eastern and Central Europe, there were declines in July, particularly for Russia, the Czech Republic and Poland. French and Greek manufacturers also saw somewhat reduced expansion.
These PMI results are generally mirrored in the widely watched German Ifo Business Climate survey. This index gained 1 point in July in both manufacturing and in the overall business measure, with manufacturing more than offsetting a dip in June and the all-sector index regaining much of its decrease then. These gauges also show considerable improvement from the post-2000 decline in German business prospects, although some sluggishness is still evident.
| %, >50 = Expansion, <50 = Contraction |
July 2004 | June 2004 |
|---|---|---|
| Global Overall Index | 57.3 | 56.6 |
| Japan Overall Index | 55.5 | 54.3 |
| Euro-Zone Overall Index | 54.6 | 54.4 |
| Russia Overall Index | 53.2 | 54.2 |
| Australia Overall Index | 53.5 | 50.6 |
| US ISM Index | 62.0 | 61.1 |
| Germany Ifo Survey (2000=100): Manufacturing | 97.2 | 96.2 |
| All Sectors | 95.6 | 94.6 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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