Global| Sep 02 2009German Retail Sales Still Short Of Dependable
Summary
German retail sales edged higher in July but this is after several months of declining. Despite the minor rise in sales ex-autos, retail sales in Q3 (one month into the new quarter) are dropping at an annual rate of 5.7% or 2.7% in [...]
German retail sales edged higher in July but this is after
several months of declining. Despite the minor rise in sales ex-autos,
retail sales in Q3 (one month into the new quarter) are dropping at an
annual rate of 5.7% or 2.7% in real terms. The rise in real retail
sales in July was a much larger 0.7%., not a barn burner but that did
help to blunt the Q3 decline in retail sales compared to their level in
Q2.
Car registration growth turned negative in July to boot after
a bounce in June.
On balance it is clear that Germany is not building its
recovery on the consumer. Its revival, instead, will be a factory-based
export-led affair and will depend on the performance of exports
relative to imports: those trends will be the real keys. But for a
solid recovery to take hold the German consumer will have to be
involved.
As of July, we are still waiting for that to happen.
| German Real and Nominal Retail Sales | QTR | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Jul-09 | Jun-09 | May-09 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | Yr-Ago | Saar |
| Retail Ex auto | 0.1% | -1.1% | -1.0% | -7.7% | -1.2% | -2.3% | 2.0% | -5.7% |
| MV and Parts | 0.7% | -1.3% | -1.0% | -6.1% | -1.3% | -1.0% | -1.6% | -2.7% |
| Food Bev & Tobacco | -0.9% | -3.2% | 0.8% | -12.5% | -3.4% | -2.6% | 0.0% | -15.5% |
| Clothing footwear | 2.7% | -0.3% | -1.8% | 2.3% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 11.8% |
| Car registrations (units) | -5.8% | 6.5% | -6.2% | -21.4% | 113.6% | 29.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Real | ||||||||
| Retail Ex auto | 0.7% | -1.3% | -1.0% | -6.1% | -1.3% | -1.0% | -1.6% | -2.7% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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