Global| Jun 03 2008GDP Growth Revised Up: Path Holds Steady
Summary
GDP growth was revised up from a quarterly gain of 0.7% to a gain of 0.8% in 2008-Q1. Still, Yr/Yr growth is tailing off to its lowest pace since end 2005. Myriad domestic indicators and surveys point to further slowing ahead. Private [...]
GDP growth was revised up from a quarterly gain of 0.7% to a
gain of 0.8% in 2008-Q1. Still, Yr/Yr growth is tailing off to its
lowest pace since end 2005. Myriad domestic indicators and surveys
point to further slowing ahead. Private consumption growth has steeped
down to just over 1%. Last quarter public consumption stepped down too-
but it’s too soon to call that a trend. Capital spending spurted
quarter-to-quarter but has slowed a bit Yr/Yr. Surveys on this have
been mixed. Net exports are less of a driver of growth, as imports have
picked up and export growth now roughly paces with them. Domestic
demand shows signs of slowing. This is clearly the result of damped
consumption and step back of uncertain duration in government spending
and mixed trends for investment spending.
| European GDP EU-15 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumption | Capital Formation | Trade Domestic | ||||||||
| GDP | Private | Public | Total | X Housing |
Housing | X-M: Bil E |
Exports | Imports | Demand | |
| % change Q/Q; X-M is Q/Q change in Blns of euros | ||||||||||
| Q1-08 | 3.2% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 11.0% | #N/A | #N/A | 1.0 | 7.8% | 7.6% | 3.1% |
| Q4-07 | 1.3% | -0.2% | -0.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | -2.6% | 4.9 | 1.2% | -1.1% | 0.3% |
| Q3-07 | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% | -0.7 | 9.3% | 9.9% | 2.8% |
| Q2-07 | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | -5.4% | -5.5% | -4.9% | 5.6 | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| % change Yr/Yr; X-M is Yr/Yr change in Gap in Blns of euros | ||||||||||
| Q1-08 | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.0% | #N/A | #N/A | 10.9 | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Q4-07 | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 0.1% | 4.4 | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Q3-07 | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 9.9 | 7.2% | 6.1% | 2.2% |
| Q2-07 | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 6.6 | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| 5-Yrs | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.6% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.0% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
