Global| Nov 25 2008France Business Climate Report
Summary
The Insee business climate indicator is plunging. The overall index dropped to 80 in November from 87 in October and now sits in the bottom 14% of its range going back to 1990. It is the 10th weakest climate reading on record. The [...]
The Insee business climate indicator is plunging. The overall
index dropped to 80 in November from 87 in October and now sits in the
bottom 14% of its range going back to 1990. It is the 10th weakest
climate reading on record. The table below is for the manufacturing
sector which is similarly weak. For manufacturers in France the current
industrial trend is the worst on record. The price level is in the
bottom 16% of its range. The recent trend is weak, bottom 20 percent of
its range. But the outlook trend at a -28 raw reading is the worst in
the history of the series - bottom of the range. Orders and demand are
weak, in the bottom 21% of their range. Foreign orders are relatively
weak and reside in the bottom 16 percent of their range. Meanwhile
inventory levels are relatively high in the 87th percentile of their
range.
Industry in France undergoing severe downward pressure.
Today’s data on German GDP suggested that its GDP was hurt the most by
drops in exports. But then Germany is an exporting economy. Germany’s
main trade partners, like France, are in trouble so it looks like this
sort of weakness is something we will be seeing the coming months in
Germany as well.
| INSEE Manufacturing Survey | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since Jan 1990 | Since Jan 1990 | |||||||||
| OUTLOOK | Nov 08 |
Oct 08 |
Sep 08 |
Aug 08 |
%tile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean |
| Industrial Prod Trend | -69 | -66 | -42 | -38 | 0.0 | 227 | 44 | -69 | 113 | -7 |
| Industrial Price Level | -17 | 14 | 27 | 41 | 16.7 | 197 | 68 | -34 | 102 | 9 |
| Production | ||||||||||
| Recent Trend | -22 | -12 | -8 | -2 | 19.7 | 214 | 35 | -36 | 71 | 5 |
| Likely trend | -28 | -22 | -11 | -6 | 0.0 | 227 | 34 | -28 | 62 | 6 |
| Orders/Demand | ||||||||||
| Orders&Demand | -45 | -32 | -25 | -22 | 21.3 | 211 | 29 | -65 | 94 | -15 |
| FgnOrders&Demand | -46 | -26 | -28 | -22 | 16.2 | 215 | 37 | -62 | 99 | -10 |
| Inventories | ||||||||||
| Levels | 26 | 22 | 18 | 17 | 87.9 | 6 | 30 | -3 | 33 | 13 |
| Prices | ||||||||||
| Likely Sales Price Trend | 0 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 50.0 | 110 | 25 | -25 | 50 | 0 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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