Global| Aug 13 2004Finished Producer Prices Tame, But Crude Prices Soar
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The July PPI for finished goods rose a tame 0.1% versus Consensus expectations for a 0.3% rise.The "core" PPI also was well behaved, rising an expected 0.1%. Finished energy prices bounced up 2.3% (11.3% y/y) after the 1.6% June [...]
The July PPI for finished goods rose a tame 0.1% versus Consensus expectations for a 0.3% rise.The "core" PPI also was well behaved, rising an expected 0.1%.
Finished energy prices bounced up 2.3% (11.3% y/y) after the 1.6% June decline. Offsetting that gain was a 1.6% (+4.9% y/y) decline in food prices.
Prices of finished consumer goods less food & energy rose 0.1% (1.8% y/y) for the second month reflecting flat consumer durable prices and a 0.2% gain in core non-durable prices.
Finished capital goods prices rose 0.1% (1.6% y/y).
The fireworks in the PPI report was an 8.6% increase in core crude goods prices, a record gain which reflected a 32.2% (NSA) rise in iron & steel scrap prices. Other metals prices also were quite strong.
Intermediate goods prices were strong as well with a 0.8% gain. Core intermediate prices rose the same 0.5% (6.4% y/y) as in June, last month reflecting higher paperboard and box prices.
"Will Oil Prices Choke Growth?" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Producer Price Index | July | June | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | 0.1% | -0.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | -1.3% | 2.0% |
| Core | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.8% | 0.5% | 7.7% | 4.7% | -1.5% | 0.4% |
| Core | 0.5% | 0.5% | 6.4% | 2.0% | -0.5% | -0.1% |
| Crude Goods | -0.2% | 1.6% | 22.1% | 25.1% | -10.6% | 0.3% |
| Core | 8.6% | -0.5% | 28.8% | 12.4% | 3.8% | -10.0% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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