Global| Mar 23 2006February U.S. Budget Deficit Deeper, Fiscal YTD Narrower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. federal government posted a deeper budget deficit during February of $119.2B versus last February's deficit of $113.9B. Nevertheless, the fiscal year to date budget deficit narrowed to $217.5B versus 223.4B during the first [...]
The U.S. federal government posted a deeper budget deficit during February of $119.2B versus last February's deficit of $113.9B. Nevertheless, the fiscal year to date budget deficit narrowed to $217.5B versus 223.4B during the first five months of FY05.
Net revenues collapsed 50.9% m/m as is often the case during February but rose 10.5% during the first five months versus FY04. Individual income tax receipts (44% of total receipts) rose 10.8% y/y and corporate income taxes (10% of total receipts) rose 29.6% y/y during fiscal year 2005's first five months.
The improved job market raised employment taxes (36% of total receipts) 6.0% y/y though estate & gift taxes fell 0.4% y/y.
U.S. net outlays continued strong and rose 7.6% y/y fiscal year to date. Defense (19% of total outlays) for the first five months of FY06 rose 7.6% from the year prior. The growth in Medicare spending (12% of total outlays) accelerated to 8.5% y/y and spending on social security (21% of total outlays) grew 5.6%. s
Agriculture spending grew 10.6%. Also strong was spending on community & regional development which nearly tripled this fiscal year to date versus last. Spending on health programs (10% of the total) rose 2.1% while spending on education & training (4% of the total) fell 1.9% y/y. Interest expense (8% of the total) grew 24.3% with higher interest rates.
The Current Budget Projections from the US Congressional Budget Office released March 3rd are available here.
| US Government Finance | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | FY 2005 | FY 2004 | FY 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | $-119.2B | $21.0B | $-113.9B (2/05) | $-318.3B | $-412.7B | $-377.6B |
| Net Revenues | $112.9B | $230.0B | 11.9% | 14.5% | 5.5% | -3.8% |
| Net Outlays | $232.1B | $209.0B | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
